After the election in Zurich: green slip and its consequences



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The green and green liberals succeed in the greatest canton of the historic electoral victory. But in the federal election in autumn, the climate union should not increase to the same extent as the calculations show.

Lorenz Honegger

Great winners in Zurich: new green councilor Martin Neukom with the chairman of the green party Marionno Schlatter-Schmid. (Image: Walter Bieri / Keystone (Zurich, March 24, 2019))

Great winners in Zurich: new green councilor Martin Neukom with the chairman of the green party Marionno Schlatter-Schmid. (Image: Walter Bieri / Keystone (Zurich, March 24, 2019))

For the first time in history, the Cantonal Council in Zurich is controlled by an ecological majority. This is the euphoric conclusion of the Green National Council, Balthazar Glättli, when Green and Green Liberals won 18 seats on Sunday. What it means: With the SP, the EPP and the list of alternatives, both parties now reach more than half of the votes on behalf of the "green". The majority of people in Zurich's parliament have lost their seats, but the SVP has nine seats less. He asks from a federal point of view: Will the massive green slide be repeated at the October National Council elections in the context of the climate debate?

There are many reasons for this. Zürich residents are not statistically representative for the whole country, but as the inhabitants of the largest canton, they represent a significant cross-section of the Swiss population, while those who have won Zurich in the past have also increased at the national level. The debate on measures against global warming will not be so rapidly reduced. In this regard, the likely greenback of the green-green-liberal axis in the autumn would be likely.

Positive forecast for Green

But something is wrong. Lukas Golder, co-director of the research institute gfs.bern, calculated on Sunday, when final results are available, how many percent of the voters of the Green Liberals and Greens have gained in the Swiss cantons since 2015 in 20 cantons. His conclusion: without the electoral circle in Zurich, Green Liberals would lose the percentage of voters across Switzerland, but would lose 0.05 percentage points: "Similarly, the sharp increase in the number of green liberals in the federal election and the elections in the Cantonal Council in Zurich is therefore unrealistic. it became possible, as Golder says, because the party is very well organized in Zurich, which is not the case in other cantons. A more positive forecast is caused by the Green's poll: they have been systematically increasing in many cantons. Even without Zurich, the party is still in a positive range half a percentage point.

The calculated numbers from the cantons are relativized by Zürcher Grünrutsch. But Sunday's winners can not take their euphoria. The president of the GLP party and state councilor Jürg Grossen is already considering the seat in the Bundesrat: on a federal level, he sees his client's long-term potential "well over ten percent" of the electorate: "Our goal as Green Liberals must be to be one day also headquartered in This can hardly be achieved in parliamentary elections, after which everything is open.

Other parties, in particular the CPC, are dealing with quite different issues. The People's Party lost 5.6 percentage points in the election in Zurich. Although it is still the strongest force in the Cantonal Council of Zurich, the days when the party with its central theme on migration easily won the elections is over. The election of State Councilor Natalie Rickley to the government is a small consolation: she was surprisingly close to a leap into the executive branch. The president of the SVP party, Albert Rösti, in the interview (see below) predicts a "ruthless analysis" of the results from Zurich.

Zürcher Grünrutsch also puts pressure on the national liberals. Since this week they are less present with two cantonal and one government headquarters. Party leader Petar Gössi emphasizes that it is still too early to leave the Cantonal elections for federal elections. In her view, the election in Zurich is not particularly good. "Much can happen in the next few months." But the party's leadership in the FDP will present the results of its survey on the subject at a delegates' meeting. "Then you have to act, that's clear," says Gössi.

Frustrated social democrats

It is less clear which strategy should be implemented by the autumn. It could retain its share of voters in Zurich to a large extent and only recorded a loss of seats. The fact that Green's colleagues are so successful, but many members of the party are creating. "What makes me sad is that the SP is not perceived as an ecological force, which is," says Priscilla Seiler Graf, Priscilla.

Worries about GDP. A small party loses all the seats in the cantonal parliament, because on Sunday in no county in Zurich it did not reach the required council in five percent. Martin Landolt, president of the party, tried through Twitter to try to cheer his members: "The electoral system is hitting us hard. Breathe deeply, get up, continue with the fight. Because reason can no longer be ignored. "

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