BEAC expects the economy in the CEMAC area to "expect" less than is expected


The updated projections are based on a growth rate of 1.7%, compared to + 0.2% in 2017, an increase in the general price level of approximately 1.7% compared to 0.9% in 2017, an increase in the surplus of liabilities for the base for the general government balance, including grants, to 0.5% of gross domestic product (GDP) compared to -3.1% of GDP in 2017.

At the same time, the central bank's forecast that the current account deficit of the Central African Economic and Monetary Union (CEMAC) will be reduced to -3.7% of GDP, compared with -4.2% of GDP in 2017, as well as an increase in the money supply of 6, 3%, for external security of the exchange rate, which would remain at 59.7%.

This data is very different from the audited forecasts of the monetary and financial economic situation of the CEMAC countries for 2018, presented by the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) on 25 July, focusing on accelerated activity with a growth rate of 2.5% in terms of on the initial forecast + 1.9%.

At that time, the Issuing Institute also allowed an increase in the general price level to a 1.6% annual average, compared to 0.9% in 2017, a surplus of budget commitments, including subsidies, by 0.5% of GDP versus -3, 3% of GDP in 2017, while the current account deficit is -4,3% of GDP, compared to -4,0% of GDP in 2017 and an increase in monetary offer of 7,1%, with an external currency of 60,7%.

According to BEAC, the assumptions on which the expected changes in the macroeconomic framework for 2018 are based are externally linked to a major recovery in global crude oil prices, the depreciation of the US dollar from 5.9% to 546.9 FCFA / US dollar is lower than expected (-8 , 9% to 529.1 francs / dollar CFA).

The same projections show a strong improvement in terms of trade and, at home, an increase in oil production, a reduction in gas production, and the continuation of macroeconomic and structural reforms of the CEMAC countries.

However, the issuing institution points to the risk that the Kongo financial program will not be signed with the International Monetary Fund (IMF), which could have a negative impact on monetary stability due to the weakness of the mobilization of external resources arising from such an event.

"The acceleration of world economic growth would contribute to an increase in the global trade volume of around 4,2% in 2018 and 4,0% in 2019, compared to 5,2% in 2017 and would benefit the CEMAC economies in the medium term, despite the foreseeable worsening of terms of trade, which is mainly associated with the unfavorable development of oil prices between 2019 and 2020. "

The sub-regional economic and financial outlook set up by BEAC foresees a real growth rate of activity, expected to reach 3.4% in 2019 before falling to 3.0% and 3.1% in 2020 and 2021, compared to 1.7% in 2018, mainly due to the non-oil sector's performance, a development that would result from the development of the agricultural sector, services, construction and public works (BTP) and the manufacturing industry.

In support of operations in the petroleum-free sector, the central bank is committed to restoring security in the Central African Republic and the borders of Chad and Cameroon with Nigeria, as well as in the northern and southwestern regions of Cameroon. but also on the implementation of the Economic and Financial Reform Program (PREF-CEMAC) and positive exit from the implementation of fiscal consolidation measures from the programs signed by the countries with the International Monetary Fund.

Medium-term inflation forecasts by Bank's services grow, while remaining below 3% in the Community, due to the increase in taxation, the strength of domestic demand is sustained due to an increase in budget revenues and an increase in Gabon's fuel prices and their further growth in the sub-region due to their indexation to global crude prices oil.

In the period 2019-2021, Public Public Finance CEMAC would remain in surplus, while external accounts would be difficult to recover in recent years, and the rate of external currency coverage would fall from 63.5% in 2019 to 65.2% in 2020 and 67.7% in 2021 to 59.7% in 2018 in connection with a continuous increase in net foreign assets in annual differences of 13.4% in 2019, 0% in 2020 and 14.3% in 2021 at 19.9% in 2018.

However, there are some risks to these forecasts that relate to the deviation in the implementation of programs with the IMF, the sudden and unpredictable decline in the price of soda of crude oil, faster than the expected tightening of the monetary policy of the Federal Reserve. USA.

Given the economic and financial situation, which is only slightly improved and in line with the strategic direction of monetary policy for 2018, BEAC plans to further tighten its monetary policy in order to keep the reserves at the appropriate level, i.e. at the lowest level corresponding to the 3-month coverage of imports of goods and services and the maintenance of external public debt.

Given the favorable macroeconomic perspectives of the sub-region and in support of its external sustainability, the CPM announced on 31 October its decision to raise the tender interest rate (TIAO) by 2, 95% to 3.50%, the marginal lending from 4.70% to 5.25 %, retain the unchanged level of the deposit facility, increase the penalty for banks by 7.00% to 7.55%, and maintain the unchanged rates of minimum reserves.

FCEB / si / APA


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