AMLO, the risk of starting with the wrong foot: FocusEconomics


On the margin of taking over the post of President of Mexico Andrés Manuel López Obrador, "he risks the risk of starting his administration with a wrong foot, with capital outburst, a drop in the peso and potential decrease in expectations," explains FocusEconomics.

As a sample, the company takes on a revision of the negative perspectives on Mexico's sovereign banknote banner to find that "the old façades of the elected president seem to disappear, which seemed to be a friend of the market".

In the Latin Focus Consensus Forecast for November, average growth forecasts for the years 2018 and 2019 remained unchanged, namely 2.2%.

They draw attention to the shades and give voice to one of the consultants: Alexis Milo, chief economist at HSBC, who warns of "barriers to transition to the continuity of some projects".

"We expect economic activity to continue to accelerate in the coming quarters, but the transition between the two administrations is usually confronted with obstacles such as the continuity of some projects, which will lead to administrative inefficiency and will lead to the beginning of 2019 with significant challenges", Says strateg.

"For now, we expect that the economy, which will continue to expand in the coming quarters, will be healthy," explains, "but we expect an increase in uncertainty in domestic factors that will impose important challenges."

In the details of the information, three brokerage and advisory services reduced their forecasts of economic expansion, and they compensated the increases in GDP forecasts for six brokering deals.

For growth prospects of 2019, Goldman Sachs' most optimistic forecast was a 2.8% increase. In contrast, the American choir is forecasting a 1.5% GDP.


As FocusEconomics usually points out, the November report asks whether they are already predicting for two years now. On the basis of this exercise, 15 out of the 42 groups that were consulted abstained from publishing the announcement.

The consensus forecast, from those who responded, predicts the expansion of the economy at 2.4 percent.


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