The real price range of the Austrian house


Some analysts have described the decline in housing prices in Sydney and Melbourne as a catastrophic disaster, which will take years to recover.

But one of the most esteemed Australian economists has put an obvious market chaos in a clear perspective.

Indeed, Shane Oliver, Chief Economist and Head of Investment Strategy and Economy at AMP Capital, said that the last 18 months of steep declines in the new South Wales and Victorian capitals "is not the end of the world".

"I do not know that I even call it an accident with the property," Oliver told

It highlights a graph that illustrates its point that shows more than 20 years of real estate prices in Sydney and Melbourne as well as an average for other major cities.

Real estate prices over the past 20 years with Shane Oliver's forecasts in 2021. Photo / Retrieved
Real estate prices over the past 20 years with Shane Oliver's forecasts in 2021. Photo / Retrieved

"This points to a massive flourishing of real estate prices that we saw in Sydney and Melbourne, with years of very strong profits that were spotted around 2012," said Oliver.

"This reflects the recent decline in Sydney, when prices stand out in July 2017, and also in Melbourne, where prices reached the highest value in November 2017."

Housing prices in Sydney exploded between the beginning of the boom and its end, when it increased by as much as 72 percent. In Melbourne, real estate values ​​rose by an incredible 56 percent during the five-year boom.

"So far Melbourne has fallen by about 10 percent and Sydney by about 14 percent," said Oliver. "In order to understand this, prices are in fact again at the level of 2015 and on the right path to return to the 2014 level.

"We had a lot of years of very profitable profits. We brought back something."

Oliver also said that the chart also shows his forecast for the next few years – even when the market recovery begins.

What happened?

After years of speculation on how hot real estate could be found in Sydney and Melbourne, prices began to cool significantly from mid-2017 onwards.

Oliver said that this happened for a number of reasons, since at the same time it was a perfect storm.

In both cities there was an increase in the supply of new housing, which caused flooding of the housing and house market, which enabled customers to make a greater choice.

Foreign investors also escaped, with activity declining by two thirds since 2016, mainly due to the government crisis.

Significant tightening of loan conditions – banks have made it difficult to obtain a mortgage under the pressure of regulators and in anticipation of a harmful royal commission – they also affected markets in Sydney and Melbourne.

"And they also had many more speculative investors," said Oliver.

As can be seen from the chart above, Oliver said that other major cities – as a cumulative average – were "quite boring in the big scheme of things".

"The chart obviously hides a series of results," he added.

"In Perth and Darwin prices have dropped dramatically, in Hobart they have risen, and they did not do much in Adelaide, Brisbane and Canberra.

"Sydney and Melbourne have had a huge boom and now they are going through the bust. The other major cities are not so vulnerable simply because they did not have a boom. They are affected by a little tightening of credit conditions and a reduction in foreign demand."

However, Oliver does not hesitate to describe the situation in Sydney and Melbourne as an accident, just as "long-running".

"The evil of the disaster is what you saw during the global financial crisis in the US and parts of Europe, it was much more painful," he said.

"People lost their jobs and could not massively provide their loans, put their real estate on the market, lower prices and keep the spiral.

"In Australia, what we see – up to now in any case – is a sinking after a long flowering. We do not see evidence of panic on the market.

"Some people are in panic, of course. I call FONGO – afraid you will not come out. Some investors may have hoped to get a 10% return on their assets, and now everything they get is a rent of 2 cents at the expense of you might want to get out. "

What will happen?

The general consensus of economists and analysts is that the reduction in prices in Sydney and Melbourne is not yet complete.

Oliver agrees and expects a 25% top-down reduction in both cities.

"So far, Melbourne has fallen by about 10 percent and Sydney by about 14 percent, so we are in Melbourne and halfway in Sydney almost half way," he said.

He projects falls to continue this year and in 2020 before the recovery begins, but he is not sure that a new boom will begin.

Not immediately, anyway.

"We hope that all of this will bring us back to the one that is more affordable than speculative," said Oliver.

"My assessment is that this will be a more measured market, a recovery phase.

"Households' debts in Australia are much higher these days than they were when the last price rises, so people may not want to take over the debt they had.

"Secondly, loan standards are much stricter and stricter. The way (regulators) see things, especially after the Royal Commission, is likely to remain so for some time.

"And hopefully, the offer we've seen has increased, especially from units that help returning to a more speculative market."

But the only important factor that could ruin the fact that it is "a more limited recovery period" is the trust of developers.

The recession in Sydney and Melbourne, coupled with uncertainty about the proposed changes in part of the tax on capital gains and the negative transformation of work and the deterioration of the demand of foreign investors, could show that housing construction projects were postponed.

"I wonder if these developers were so painful that they stopped projects and that we would eventually get another shortage and go back to where we were initially blossoming," Oliver said.


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