Dark signs on the farm: is there a new disaster?


This year, too, bonds and bonds are bad, so there was a lot already for a new recession. With regard to the cyclical nature of the economy, however, we are still in the recovery phase, and it can take up to two to three years before the economic downturn. However, at the current stage, extreme shifts and even smaller or larger losses are expected, so investors should not look at the momentum of individual assets, but on the long-term profit of the entire portfolio.

This year, neither the bond market nor the shares are traded, and negative returns are taking place, so many people are worried about the crisis due to the new crisis – the informed company K & H Fund Management.

Owing to the cyclical nature of the economy, it often happens that the effectiveness of the two classes of assets is different or both are poor, so the long-term picture and the place where the current economic cycle should be, the current decline is a fairly corrective or initial market in terms. In order to get this answer, the functioning of the global economy, the functioning of central banks and the market processes must be taken into account

– stressed Mátyás Kovács, senior portfolio manager at K & H Fund Management.

While the world economy is expected to rise to 3.7 percent next year and 2.5 percent growth in the US economy, it expects the euro area, which currently operates weaker, to increase by 1.9 percent, which is was a clear ascent. Meanwhile, the increasing labor shortage is also a warning sign for the cycle, but inflation has just begun, which clearly shows the maturing phase and not the recession.

Although the central bank, which has the role of the US central bank, continues to increase interest rates, the European Central Bank will complete the bond purchase program by the end of this year. This caution suggests that economic growth on the feet is already stable without any stimulus measures taken by the central banks.

Similarly, in recent years, there has been a decline in stock markets, which is why this is actually a correction, while in the long run it is still increasing. European bond yields are still on the bond market, but US yields are already rising, which is a special feature of the recovery phase.

In general, we see that the economy is always cyclical and remains what we are now in the recovery phase. However, this may take 1-2 years, so instead of panicking, two things must be matched: on the one hand, strong exchange rate fluctuations remain with us; on the other hand, one or more investments in this volatile market environment may indicate a minus or at least a lower profit than one or two years ago. What is the most striking solution in this case, if we do not look at one investment asset, but we want to make a profit on the entire portfolio of our investment portfolio in the long run

– recommends an investment expert.

Would it be worth 3 million forints?

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