iPhone is banned in China, what are Apple and Qualcomm afraid of? Love fan


In the last few days, we are most talked about Apple's news that it will not be iPhone in 2019 long, but that users will still buy the iPhone in the future.

We turn to this incident again. On December 10th, Qualcomm announced that it had received a patent dispute with Apple, while Fuzhou, the Intermediate People's Court, decided to temporarily bans Qualcomm's ban on Apple's iPhone sales. Products that were banned include iPhone 6s / 6s Plus and iPhone 7. 7 devices with / 7 Plus, iPhone 8/8 Plus and iPhone X.

This means that in addition to the latest iPhone XS / XS Max and XR series, all older models sold on the official Apple website are all in temporary bans.

This is also the latest change in Apple's and Qualcomm's controversial disputes over the past year.

Since then, Apple has first responded to Qualcomm's lock that says "an attempt to sell iPhone products is another desperate step with Qualcomm" and also submits a re-review request. In the past few days, the official Apple website and the offline Apple Store are still selling old iPhone models.

However, Qualcomm's position is still difficult. According to the first financial news report, since all three subsidiaries of Apple refused to sign a court decision, Qualcomm once again filed an application for "enforcing a ban" to the Chinese court, from the Financial Times. It is said that Qualcomm also hopes to ban three new models, including the iPhone XS / XS Max / XR.

The incident has again entered the heat, and has attracted the attention of many consumers. What cares about what patents Apple violates? And what does this ban on Apple and Qualcomm mean?

Apple's patent infringement patents may be associated with cardOS multitasking interactions

Now Apple's Qualcomm case has a lot to be confirmed, one of which is the application. According to CNBC, Apple considers this patent litigation only applies to the iOS 11 system, not the new iOS 12, so this is not affected by the current sale of the iPhone.

But then Qualcomm said it was a ban on a specific iPhone model, regardless of the version of the system being sent.

It should be noted that the judgment mentioned the patent "ZL201310491586.1". Following Ai Fanner's investigation, it was found that the Office of the State Intellectual Property Office publicly discussed the patent case in May this year, including details. Shows information about this patent.

This model and interface are well known, right? It's easy to think of a palm stylus interface during WebOS. In fact, this is so. The patent originally belonged to Hewlett-Packard. In 2014, Qualcomm purchased a large number of patents from Hewlett-Packard, this interactive multitasking interactive card is owned by Qualcomm.

A year ago, Qualcomm's arguments against Apple in the US District Court warned that iOS now violates the design of interactive card cards, including "using text instead of voice for answering incoming calls" and "tapping the touch screen." To achieve sharpness of the camera and other functions.

These sound and unusual features have now become part of Apple's patent application Qualcomm.

But now Apple has said in the latest announcement that the patents included in this Qualcomm application are not the main functions for the use of mobile phones, Apple will release a software update for Chinese iPhone users next week to resolve possible compliance with Apple. The problem, as well as re-emphasized instructions for reconsideration.

In addition, the prohibition, as reported by Ai Faner, banned Qualcomm from being only a temporary safeguard because the ban is for Apple, and the ban will not affect the iPhone sold by the terminal vendor. If Apple later reconsiders the case, the ban is likely to be revoked.

However, China Securities Journal referred to the relevant judicial sources that the decision was within the scope of the patent order, but Apple could have asked for a re-examination, but the re-examination did not affect the enforcement of the ban, as the ban on Apple software update can not be prohibited cancel. Further observation.

If the iPhone is really banned, what's the impact on Apple?

Remove 10,000 steps, if Apple really lost, and you do not comply with Qualcomm resolutely, which caused the iPhone to be banned, what kind of impact will Apple have?

Well-known Apple analyst Neil Cybart analyzed two examples for us:

1. Some iPhones are banned on the Chinese market
2. All the whales on the iPhone are banned on the Chinese market

In the first case, this means that Apple can sell iPhone XS / XS Max and XR in the official channel. The remaining old models are forbidden to be promoted and sold and removed from the shelf.

This will Apple lose about 8-10 million iPhone sales per year.

The calculation is based on the share of sales in China in past earnings of Apple earnings. From 2017 this ratio is stable at around 20%.

If we assume that the sale of the iPhone in Greater also represents a 20% or even higher global sales, this means that China has generated approximately 42 million total sales of 210 million iPhones this year. This data is essentially the same as IDC 2017 data.

According to Bloomberg, Apple's documents submitted to the court show Apple's sales on the Chinese market in 2017, which is 50 million iPhones.

Given the share of the old iPhone, which is about 30% of the total iPhone sales annually, you can get around 10-15 million units. However, Neil Cybart also pointed out that in the Chinese market high priced iPhones accounted for the proportion of sales. It will be even bigger. The share of old models may only be around 20%, and the number of old iPhone phones will eventually be around 8-10 million.

Of course, there is some uncertainty in this assessment. If the share of iPhones in sales in the Greater China is even higher, the sales volume will be higher than this result.

At the same time, we do not rule out that after the iPhone is banned in China, it will stimulate the growth of iPhones sales in other regions, demand for the gray market, including the used market, will increase, which will control the demand for old iPhone in the Chinese market.

As for the second case, it is even more cruel. This is identical to Apple's inability to sell any iPhone model in the official channel. In fact, he renounces sales numbers from 40 to 50 million per year.

The decline in hardware sales will also have an impact on Apple's revenue and other accessories. When it's true, it will eventually be reflected in the Apple earnings report.

The iPhone ban is just rhetoric. That's just the weight of Qualcomm looking for reconciliation.

Currently, most public opinion is pessimistic about the iPhone's ban on the Chinese market. In addition to Chinese lawsuits, Qualcomm filed a complaint in Germany and the United States.

But in general, the confrontation between Qualcomm and Apple is also a matter of "killing a thousand and losing eight hundred." In fact most of the iPhone bans that they were looking for in the past year did not reach the desired results. In the United States, the judges of the Federal Trade Commission continued to say that Qualcomm's patent licensing and sales strategy for the sale of chips undermined reasonable competition on the market.

To this end, Qualcomm decided to reduce the licensing fee when it licensed the patent technology of 5G, which is also seen as a desire to ease the relationship with Apple.

What is happening in other areas has affected the victory in China, this is in fact not decisive.

In fact, for Apple, what he wants, there is still a reasonable fee for the patent license, not the price power Qualcomm completely dominates, while for Qualcomm, while striving for his page, he hopes to get it again . An opportunity to communicate with Apple.

After all, a month ago, Qualcomm had a "willingness to work with Apple" to prove its intention to show a good relationship, but Apple at the time was hoping to rely on a legal war to solve the problem.

Now the balance has temporarily dropped to Qualcomm, but maybe Apple will reconsider negotiations with Qualcomm.

Map Source:Puls Biznesu


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