At its meeting on Thursday, December 13, the European Central Bank confirmed that it will end QE at the end of this year at EUR 2.5 trillion. After the meeting, the statement was slightly changed. But in the face of consistent decisions, some "battles" can be hidden.
Reuters has cross-referenced that European policy-makers on Thursday backed the withdrawal of free incentives, and some hope to adopt more cautious tones on the economic prospects of the euro area, for example with the explanations that the risks associated with the economic outlook are "prone to negative impact ". And this is the text that the European Central Bank in the past has suggested to prepare for another monetary relief.
Opponents believe that such market adjustments will anticipate that the European Central Bank will not adjust its policy. Others believe that even if the ECB is not ready to change the text, it must admit that growth is slowing down. If the release message remains unchanged, it will raise questions about the credibility of the ECB.
Finally, the ECB statement after the end of the session only adjusted, reflecting an increase in economic concerns, but considered that the risks were still balanced.
Earlier on Wall Street, the article states that the statement reinforces targeted re-investment guidelines, saying it will reinvest, if necessary, the maturing bonds and change the aforementioned "continuation of reinvestment after QE" into "the first time". Continue with reinvestment after an increase in interest rates. "The analysis considers that the meeting of the ECB at this meeting stated that the pigeons were only slightly adjusted.
However, Wall Street noticed that ECB President Mario Draghi mentioned the negative risks to the press conference after the meeting. He said:
"Risks related to the growth potential of the euro area are still assessed as a general balance. However, due to geopolitical factors, threats to protectionism, fragile emerging markets and constant volatility in financial markets, the balance of risks is in a worse position."
Draghi said that recent data and research results were weaker than expected, partly due to weaker external demand and state and sectoral factors. He added that the local economy will continue to support economic expansion. Although the ECB's Governing Board is more cautious, there is still confidence in the euro area.
Draghi emphasized that the European Central Bank, with weak external demand, has reduced GDP growth and inflation expectations this year and next year. At the same time, he said that the European Central Bank has the tools to deal with possible future economic slowdowns and bad problems. The meeting did not discuss the timing of the increase in the interest rate, nor did it discuss the long-term refinancing operation (LTRO).
Ken Wattret, economist at IHS Markit, said that if the European Central Bank objectively assessed economic change since June this year, it would expand the purchase of QE assets. Inevitable inflation is not really repeated. The real concern is that the lack of ammunition in the euro area may become a problem in the future.
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