China's economic situation is still dark. The Chinese Communist Party met with a politburo on Thursday, and will focus on a business conference on Friday, focusing on coping strategies. People who took note of this issue said that this round of meetings would propose new measures to promote the economy and open the market. Some experts expect that GDP growth in the next year may be lower than 6%, but the final situation depends on the outcome of the US-China trade war.
Compared to last year, residents across the country felt that the Chinese economy was entering depression. In the northeast, many people are still looking forward to the central government's action to revitalize the northeast of last year, considering that the real estate market is far away, but after one year it is expected that the economic return will be completely lost.
Mr. Lin, a resident of Shenyang, told Radio Free Asia that he thought the economic downturn had come. On the one hand, people are concerned about unemployment and, on the other hand, they can not repay their loans: "I feel depressed, the most important sign is that people who shop at the supermarket are not as vulnerable as people, but about 70% less than before. , go earlier, you do not have a place without reservations, especially at night, it's now difficult to find a seat. In the past, there were ten hotel tables, two or three tables, which are now ten tables, unless a restaurant is well known. The Full Hotel is now very rare. I consider that the Chinese economy has a big problem. "
Some residents in the city of Guangzhou say that the Chinese trade war, along with news of corporate redundancies, is afraid of most people, and the number of free units in the shopping center has increased significantly.
Within this pessimistic mood, the Conference of the Economic Working Group of the CPC will be held in Beijing on Friday (14) until the following Monday (17) for a period of four days. The meeting took place in the context of a fierce battle between US-China trade and a temporary ceasefire.
According to Chinese economists who do not want to be appointed, the meeting will review the economic performance of this year and reduce import tariffs with a previous agreement reached with the United States, and propose measures to promote economic development and expand the opening. The meeting will also confirm the preservation of the established political policy of the CCP Politbiro meeting, namely "stabilization of employment, stabilization of finances, stabilization of foreign trade, stabilization of foreign investments, stabilization of investments and stabilization of expectations". Avoid the economy from "hard landing".
Professor Hu Xingdou, economist of Beijing, told Radio Free Asia on Thursday (13): "I think this basic economic conference will be a stable currency, loose loans and broad funding. This is almost the case. in the past one or two decades, monetary policy has been too loose, causing a number of problems, and inflation can be very high in the future. "
Some media have quoted scientists to analyze that an economic working conference will discuss tax cuts, increase public spending, boost the economy, and open up the market even more. Zhang Jun, chief economist at Morgan Stanley Huaxin Securities, said in an interview with China Business News that domestic macro-politic policy next year will be expected to be "stable currency, loose loans and wider funding". The central bank will publish cheaper medium and long-term assets, increase the willingness of financial institutions to lend, withdraw credits and direct resources into the real economy. Fiscal policy will be more active. The level of budget deficit, the issuance of local government bonds and the volume of tax reductions and reductions are expected to increase next year.
Now, China and the United States are in a state of temporary discontinuation of trade. The US side will give China 90 days to study and end at the end of February next year. According to the Statistical Office of China, the consumer price index dropped to 2.2% in November, the lowest since August. The industrial producer price index in industrial producers was recorded at 2.7%, and it was also the lowest in more than two years. For the growth of Chinese GDP this year, the external world is expected to be 6.5% to 6.7%. Goldman Sachs expects China's GDP to grow 6.2% next year in mid-November. But economists, who do not want to be named, predicted that if the Chinese trade war continues, the next year's growth could reach 6% or even lower.
Excessive capacity is another problem with China. China's financial information network announced on Wednesday that since December the total refining capacity in the country has reached 840 million tonnes and the domestic refinery capacity will increase by at least 214 million tonnes over the next three years. The risk of overcapacity is becoming more and more evident.
Mr Gu, a chess economist, told reporters: "Excessive capacity will have a very negative impact on domestic economic conditions. There is also a problem of closing down a factory that will create different social contradictions. The current economic situation in the country is not optimistic Optimist, the whole market is relatively depressed. "
Some experts expect that the volume of the Chinese government deficit, bond issue and tax cuts will increase in the coming year, and various "broad fiscal measures" will be actively implemented. But relations between the United States and China will be an important factor.
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Editor-in-chief: Lin Shiyuan