Please note the report on the freight transport index for March 2019.
The Cass Freight Index was one of the first indicators of cargo flow, which became positive (October 2016) and confirms our forecast of a recovery in the US economy. In addition to our concern that the Cass Freight Shipments index was negative for the fourth consecutive month on the YoY basis. In the end, data in the coming weeks will show whether this is only a break in the rate of economic growth or the beginning of economic contraction.
- We are concerned about the severe downturns of international air freight flows (especially in Asia) and the recent failure to scale rail in automotive and building materials.
- We are reconciled with a consecutive increase in the freight consignment index (by 2.0%) and the quantities in domestic transport in the US (especially in trucks with a dry van).
- By rail, we carefully monitor the quantities of chemicals and other shipments, as they have lost momentum in recent weeks and can give us the first evidence of the spread of the global decline in the US.
Consignments according to GDP
A turnaround in trucks
J.B. Hunt, the largest US transport company, said this:The extent or the lack of it is obviously the main story. And the lack of driver ends. "
Wolf Richter offers great comments.
Orders, Miles Sink
Reuters reports that lorry drivers see orders, miles fall into the latest slowdown signal in the US.
"There is no doubt that we have seen a slowdown in quantities," said Bob Costello, chief economist at the US Freight Forwarding Associations (ATA). "This is a sign that the economy is slowing down."
The global economy is backed up with life. At the same time we have a slowdown in the US, China and the EU.
Trump's tax cut was a year of too early to help him with the electoral options, but he could still win.
The trade agreement with China will not affect this picture.
Mike "Mish" Shedlock