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Smelting Permefrost in the Arctic, the world economy could cost almost $ 70 billion: study – National


The release of carbon from the permafrost smelter in the Arctic, combined with the higher absorption of the sun on the surface of the Earth due to the melting of sea ice and land, will accelerate climate change and in the long run impact on the world economy. from Lancaster University has revealed.

According to a study published in 2006. T Nature Communications The combination of these factors will increase the long-term economic impact of climate change by less than $ 70 trillion on Tuesday, taking into account the level of mitigation that is consistent with current national carbon reduction commitments.

The study says that five percent of the total estimated cost of climate change.

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Within the framework of the Paris IPA agreement, in order to limit global temperature growth to 1.5 ° C at a pre-industrial level, the additional effect will be reduced to 25 trillion USD, which is four percent of the total cost.

In both cases, the study showed that the main cause of the additional costs of carbon that is emitted during the permafrost thawing.

The researchers studied the simulations of complex, state-of-the-art physical models for the quantitative evaluation of the strength of feedback on carbon in permafrost (PCF), driven by additional carbon released by defrosting permafrost and surface feedback on albedo (SAF). extra solar energy absorbed by the earth's surface, when white sea ice and land-based snow cover drops, it reveals the darker ocean and earth.

The document states that almost all studies on climate policy have so far consisted of continuous SV and zero PCFs.

However, researchers say that recent observations and computer models suggest that feedback from permafrost is stronger than both, and that both are non-linear and their power is changing in complex ways, as the climate rises.

According to the study, this affects their impact on the global climate and the economy.

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"Arctic sea ice and land snow currently contribute about one third of every global response to albedo," said lead author Dmitry Yumashev of the Pentland Center for Sustainable Development at Lancaster University.

"These two components are expected to achieve the highest global temperatures in the area covered by the Paris Agreement, but if the climate is further heated, the summer and spring sea ice and snow cover at land will be withdrawn even further north and albedo feedback will in fact weakened. "

Yumashev says that the feedback on permanent freezing is increasing in warmer climates.

"Both responses are characterized by non-linear heating responses, including a different gap between rising global temperature and carbon emissions of permafrost," he said.

However, the study showed that regardless of the amount of heating, using non-linear back links in the Arctic, it would lead to an increase in the total cost of climate change compared to previous PCF and SAF values, which are supposed to be constant.

The study found that the total cost of climate change associated with the 1.5 C or 2 C scenario amounts to some $ 600 trillion. For comparison, the estimated costs associated with a normal business situation amount to about $ 2 trillion.

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According to the findings, non-linear PCF and SAF would add $ 25 trillion to $ 600 trillion for the 1.5C scenario and $ 34 trillion for scenario 2C.

"Thus, non-linear arctic feedback results make the 1.5C more ambitious goal somewhat more economically attractive," says the newspaper.

Researchers say the additional price consists of the cost of reducing emissions, the cost of adapting to climate change and the remaining climate-related impacts.

The increase, according to the study, is mainly due to temperature-oriented effects on the economy, ecosystem, human health and additional effects due to the increase in the seal level.

The research team says they hope their assessments will provide a better understanding of socio-economic risks from climate change in different scenarios and help policymakers in prudent decisions on emission reduction targets.

"Our findings support the need for more proactive mitigation measures to bring global temperature to below 2C," Yumashev said. "We hope that our work will lead to further assessments of several non-linear processes in the Earth's climate system, both those associated with and outside the Arctic."

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