If the United Conservative Party (UCP) leader Jason Kenney becomes Prime Minister Alberto next week, investors in the Canadian energy sector should support a significant proportion of the risk, according to a new report published just a few days in Alberta's election campaign.
The report comes from the Eurasia Group, based on the American political analysis and consulting firm.
At this point, the Eurasia Group expects the victory of Jason Kenney in the election in Alberta. In the autumn he expects Prime Minister Justin Trudeau to be re-elected, a scenario that would "create additional uncertainty in the already chaotic framework of energy policy in Canada".
While NDP leader Rachel Notley repeatedly disagreed with Trudeau, their policies are more consistent than Kenney's UCP platform. According to the Eurasia Group, Kenney-Trudeau's disclosure would "find it difficult to reach the ultimate solution to key policy issues and project approval".
In a short e-statement for CBC News, the UCP said it would "encourage this consulting firm based in New York to look at how the Trudeau-Notley association did not produce tangible, positive results for Albertane."
The report explains how some companies in the oil fund support Kenney policies, while others support Notley. For example, usually larger companies are in favor of carbon tax and other climate policies, while smaller companies oppose.
The UCP is committed to ridding the carbon tax and all other policies that are part of the NDP's climate plan, including the accelerated phasing out of coal-fired power stations and the limitation of total oil gas emissions. The NDP argued that the objective of limiting carbon tax and petroleum products emissions is partially focused on the social acceptance in Canada for the construction of large petroleum gases.
A Calgary economist, Peter Tertzakian, told the ARC Energy Research Institute that some people in the oil store are "nervous" because of the climate policy regression in Alberta, if Kenney is elected.
"Undoubtedly, the segment of the industry has stalled and quite hard to think about the consequences of dramatic political reversals or political implementations that are controversial," he said.
According to Kenney and Trudeau, the Eurasia group stated that tension would affect these key elements:
- The final approval by the federal government of the Trans-Gas pipeline project and the resolution of key issues hindering construction, such as government.
- Clarity for investors regarding the price of carbon for the production of oil and gas in western Canada.
- Possible changes to deal with industrial concerns about C-69, while maintaining stricter standards for consultation from the First World and climate aspects.
- An "exit strategy" to limit the production of Alberta oil.
- Fiscal policy to address competitiveness issues in the US slate sector.
If the aforementioned list could be resolved, Canada, reportedly, "would be just ahead of a series of queues for global oil and gas investments."
The Eurasia Group said that re-election in Notley did not seem likely, but would "strengthen the fragile consensus on climate policy and pipelines between Ottawa and Edmonton".
The Eurasia Group did not immediately return the requests for an interview.