Researchers prepare 9 apocalypse scenarios that are already underway
The destruction of humanity from chemical weapons or the lava to the supergolume can sound like a Hollywood film script, but it is a real possibility, says a new report.
Global Cheltenham, which looks at the greatest risk to humanity that can lead to its disappearance, is publishing its analysis that builds the 9 most likely scenarios to be executed, writes Newsweek.
According to the British astronomer and co-founder of the Center for Existential Dangers in Cambridge, people are usually afraid of the possibility of collapsing, for example, in an air accident, while not taking into account many major threats, such as rapidly evolving new technologies and the risk of a "red" lines "according to the environment.
"It may seem unlikely, but in our interconnected world, the consequences of this type of threat can spread around the world as a cascade," Rhys said. Here are the most likely scenarios that we are preparing for our own decline in the reverse order.
The probability that the outbreak of the nuclear war is much more than a decade ago, experts warn. Because of the Hiroshima bombing that kills 150,000 people, the world has experienced war, as nobody else is, they say.
The appropriate weapon has the power to destroy 80-90% of life forms, including people, in a radius of 1 to 4 km. With about 7,000 nuclear warheads, countries like the US and Russia have the largest arsenals. The United Kingdom, France, China, India, Pakistan, North Korea and Israel have or suspected nuclear weapons.
A nuclear war can not only erase entire cities or even states from the face of the Earth, but leaves behind the catastrophe of radioactive contamination and can lead to mini-age.
Compared to other traditional methods of attack, biological and chemical weapons are relatively inexpensive to produce. At the same time, technological advances in genetic engineering and synthetic biology make it possible to use microorganisms for hazardous purposes in major circumstances.
If these small things have already been erroneously or thoughtfully released from controlled laboratories, they can cause a pandemic in unparalleled proportions, reported in a report.
In 2015 more than 200 countries signed the Paris Agreement on Climate Change (which President Donald Trump put out of the United States last year) and insisted that global warming would be limited to 2 degrees Celsius above the pre-industrial average. However, according to the authors of the document, there is already a 30% chance that they will rise above 3 degrees or more.
In this case, New York, Mumbai, Shanghai and other coastal cities will remain under water, and billions of people living on the coast or at low altitudes will become climate refugees and look for new homes. The level of destruction will not be controlled, and the apparent probability of human civilization is obvious, experts say.
People need balanced ecosystems in order to preserve their lives at the current social and economic level, they reported in the report. Although ecosystems are relatively resistant to human activity, they can no longer sustain them. Air pollution, outbreaks of foreign, atypical species, destruction of natural habitats threatens them.
If ecosystems lose their ability to cure, sweet water will become deficient, soil quality will deteriorate, biodiversity will be affected. This will lead to a significant deterioration in the daily lifestyle of people. For example, Lake Chad, which has been the victim of over-exploitation, climate change and drought, has declined by 90% since 1960, which has already had a negative impact on the lives of 40 million people who depend on it.
Due to advances in medicine, such as the implementation of large-scale vaccination programs, the number of accidents, such as cholera or malaria, has significantly decreased over the last century.
But the threat of catastrophic pandemics and new diseases that we can not protect will probably arise in the near future. There is also no possibility of infection with microorganisms of densely populated urban areas and water resources. Resistance to antibiotics is also a great concern because it eliminates very important weapons in the fight against microbes and supermicros.
The effect of the asteroid
The usual attitude of people to their planet is not the only danger they face. The asteroid is likely to exterminate the dinosaurs and there is no reason to think that none of the great rocks circling Earth could hit again. According to existing data, a collision with potentially catastrophic size appears every 120,000 years.
Experts also fear that all this will lead to such a pollution of the atmosphere that the Sun will hide for months. This will destroy crops and ecosystems and cause the death of hundreds of millions of people.
While NASA ensures that 90% of earth objects are larger than 1 km and do not pose an immediate risk, only 30% of those with a size of 140 to 1 km. However, their impact may also have important regional consequences and indirectly lead to shocks in the social and economic system, writes the authors.
An overvolcan explosion is defined as an explosion of at least 400 cubic meters of material. Data on such apocalyptic events are limited and in principle the outbreak of volcanoes is difficult to forecast. Still, volcanologists still believe that an outbreak of a super-cellular system occurs every 17,000 years, but one of them came to New Zealand 26,500 years ago.
If a super-volcano erupts, believing in Yellowstone in the United States, hundreds of thousands of horizons and animals will die, and agricultural infrastructure will be destroyed. Sulphate and dust pollution will block the sunlight for some time and cause a drop in temperature, which also threatens all living organisms.
This approach is a double-edged sword. By spraying particles, such as aerosols into the air, for direct sunlight and warming into space, scientists could slow down the harmful rise in temperature. But if all this develops in the wrong direction, life on Earth will suffer and probably disappear.
These measures can destabilize the local and global climate and various elements of the global ecosystem, the authors of the report warn. In addition, the abrupt stop of solar geoengineering would lead to rapid and severe global warming, with natural and social systems having no time and opportunity to adapt.
The authors of the study are most concerned about the probability that robots will overtake human intelligence, as well as companies that develop such devices to functionality rather than ethics. Despite the efforts to make these machines subject to some kind of morale, the smallest error could be people in helpless slaves in the hands of technology with extraordinary levels of intellect.
The most dangerous of all scenarios involves the transformation of artificial intelligence into weapons, as well as the use of smart machines programmed for good purposes, destruction and sowing of death.