Wednesday , November 25 2020

As the new Iran sanctions are hanging, the US strives to overcome the shortcomings



The question now is whether Washington is able to incorporate the many holes in the past sanctioning systems and stop revenue that will prevent the government from resisting the US pressure campaign.

Unlike the Obama administration's global sanctions, the broad opposition to US policy, including the Allies, is expected to make it much more difficult.

Still, Trump's administration has set off very well: Iran's oil production has dropped more than a million barrels a day since the US launched its new campaign. This decline – more than one third of international sales – is twice as high as the Obama era.

The Iranian economy, which accounts for 80% of Iran's tax revenues and a quarter of gross domestic product, is painful. The biggest companies in Europe were pulled out. The Iranians, in fear of economic collapse, rushed their money and lowered the value of the currency to the lows and triggered a rise in consumer prices.

The International Monetary Fund forecast this year that the Iranian economy will expand by 4% in 2018. It is reporting a two-year recession, which will lead to a 3.6% decline next year.

"We have seen a dramatic decline in Iran's largest importers, the collapse of foreign direct investment, capital inflows and the cost-benefit analysis of banks in Iran was simply not there," said Brian Hook, senior in the New Iranian Action Group in the Foreign Ministry in an interview.

Penalties that come into force will prohibit the purchase of Iranian oil from companies facing sanctions unless the Foreign Ministry issues their exemptions to their country. Some Iran's largest buyers, including China, India and Turkey, are seeking such exemptions, and US officials have indicated that they have given certain requests to provide time for alternative energy sources. Sanctions target the banking sector, shipping and ports of the country, although it is not clear how aggressive the administration is to stop the number of financial institutions and companies that have the power to blacklist.

Machine learning, large data and the tens of millions of satellite images of the planet are bad news for Iranian crude oil carriers every day trying to avoid US oil sanctions. Therefore.

Trump's administration aims to rebuild the success of Obama's sanctions, leading to the 2015 nuclear agreement. After leaving the store in May, the Trump team said it would seek a more comprehensive agreement with Iran, which not only prevents the development of nuclear weapons, but also prohibits long-term missiles and undermined Tehran-backed armed conflicts in Syria, Lebanon, Yemen and Iraq.

"History shows that this system only changes its behavior and puts considerable pressure on the negotiating table," said Mr. Hook.

Sanctions on domestic tensions, say Iranian observers. Truck drivers who object to a sudden rise in transport costs have recently joined cross-border protests, largely focused on economic disruption.

But the Iranian government is not completely isolated. Many of the world's major economies, including the transatlantic allies, opposed the Trump administration's decision to withdraw the atomic convention and reinstate the sanctions. Europe, like the rest of the government, has tried to maintain relations with Iran and partly to ensure Tehran remains in the nuclear agreement.

Global support to Tehran can allow tax evasion.

"The dissatisfaction with the US sanctions program is a silent incentive to circumvent," said Alma Angotti, Managing Director of Global Research Practice at Navigant Consulting.

Despite the corporate exodus, the European Union intends to protect and finance Iran with American sanctions. Companies from China, Russia and other countries remained in Iran.

Washington seeks to reduce oil production over the next few months, threatening sanctions sanctioning companies and countries that do not change the new sources that the administration is negotiating in Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Qatar and home.

Due to the fall in oil consumption, the government of Iran secretly continues to sell through the use of the techniques used by Obama's pressure campaign, according to US officials: the loading of cargoes into non-Iranian vessels at sea and the deactivation of ship's satellite transmitters.

Over the last few months, the Tehran government has set up a special sanctioning group, according to Iranian observers, senior officials of the oil, intelligence, export and foreign ministries and the Iranian central bank.

During the campaign to push the Obama era, Tehran spent tens of billions of dollars of oil, gold and other goods across banks, trading companies and exchange offices around the world, including Turkey and Dubai, the U.A.E. emirates. This infrastructure is reactivated, say US officials.

Turkey's state-owned Halkbank, as well as several other Turkish banks, closely scrutinized by US prosecutors, have the potential US $ billions of dollars in fines on these activities.

The bank did not send any feedback to the comment. Officials of the Turkish and U.A.E. US ambassadors did not respond to the comment request.

An American Security Officer, who knows the case, says the Dubai government has reassured the United States of America not to allow such activity again.

"There is now no particular concern that there will be a real leak," said Secretary of State Steven Mnuchin, in the Middle East tour last month.

Most of U.A.E., Qatar and Kuwait travels focused on securing sanctions. But, "as far as we can see, we'll figure out how to plug in the holes," said Mr. Mnuchin.

Mr. Hook says the United States is already familiar with the secret channels of Iran and is "forceful and ruthless in its implementation".

Write to him Ian Talley at [email protected]


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