With the global infection, the peso emphasized its weakness and the dollar spent $ 43


Source: Archive

The currency approached a record level, although the seller finally closed at $ 42.86; the local currency fell by 1.8%, but said in the State Treasury that it "well resisted the attack"

The peso was devalued by 1.8% yesterday, although this time it was pulled into a global wave of depreciation triggered by a "search for a herd of hedges" before data confirming that the global economy is slowing faster than expected.

This weakness has become evident in the latest advances, which led the dollar to quote a good portion of the day above $ 43 for sale to the public, which means that it has returned to a record level and then lags slightly: up to $ 42.86 after a survey by the Central Bank ( BCRA).

In order to try to mitigate a new jump in the currency (which rose by 4.5% in the week and amounted to almost 7% in the month), Central confirmed the new adjustment of the local reference rate, which remained at 67% per annum; approximately 7 points below the level reached at the end of the 2018 exchange.

Contractors reported on the timely incursions of Banco Nación, who at the end of the round helped reduce the pesos to less than 2%.

The clear behavior of the local currency was associated with the repositioning of capital towards safer finance, which literally "flew" quotations – in the case of bonds of the United States or Germany, to mention two markets.

The sharp rise in prices has fallen to the level of return of 10-year paper to 2.44% (a fall of 3.8% resulting in the lowest level since the end of 2017) and -0.013% (the volume that did not touch) since 2016).

Important signs

This is an unusual degree of bending for the bike and shows that, for example, who yesterday invested "100 euros in a German bond, should not be risking to receive it after 10 years? 99,97," explained financial analyst Gonzalo Burdin, number , who assesses the desperation he wants to take over, and the fear of even greater losses.

This happened after they knew that the factory production in Germany withdrew in March when it received negative data for the third consecutive month.

Shortly after it was established that according to preliminary data, industrial and service activity in the US grew even more slowly than in February, which worsened the wave of investment prudence that began on Wednesday when the Federal Reserve stated that it would not returned. this year due to the rise in the prices of the economy. "I was surprised by the message
dovish this has fueled doubts about the weakness of the economy, as suggested by the indicators of activity, "said Adrián Yarde Buller, an analyst with the SBS Group.

Immediately after the difference in yield between US government bonds. after three months and at ten years, it has fallen below zero for the first time since 2007, which is considered an early sign of a recession. This means that he paid the same, that he had a very short bonus than another debt.

All this triggered a massive redistribution of portfolios, which resulted in a loss of 2% in the main European stock markets (-2% London and Paris, -1.7% Frankfurt) and 1.8% the average in the main Wall Street indices. The emerging risk also increased by 3% on average (Argentine risk increased by 5.3%).

In parallel, it caused a global wave of depreciation in which the Mexican peso fell in the region (-1.2%); Colombia (-1.4%): Chilean (-1.5%); Argentine (-1.8) and says (-2.6). But also the Russian ruble (-1.2%); South African rand (-1.9%) and the Turkish lira that crashed by 5% and was the most important currency of the day (see infographics).

A strong adaptation of local resources

It also follows that this wave of liquidations and arbitrage between Argentine funds was also large, although they were considered by the government to be "natural" in terms of the characteristics of the day.

"In contrast to the attack, the pes was quite good at resisting, in these circumstances, the dollar was logically and soundly reorganized," they were valued at the state treasury yesterday.

So far, Argentine shares traded in New York have sank to 9% (Macro and Supervielle), with the exception of Tenaris (+ 1.6%), which is safe from storm, because it announced the purchase in the morning hours of the subsidiary of the Russian steelmaker in the United States of America in an investment of USD 1200 million.

The most traded Argentinean debt bonds have exacerbated "their bitter performance with a congestion of up to 2%," said analyst Nery Persichini of GMA Capital. This means that medium-term bonds such as Bonar 2024 already reach more than 13% a year and trigger CDS that covers the risk of five-year Argentine paper from 715 to 777 a week

Everything was confirmed by what appeared to be the rule for local property during these weeks: "They did not respond to the good news that it was in the week, but they suffered in bad, closed in the worst way," said José Echagüe, an analyst at Consultatio Plus .


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