This Thursday is the second time in the Sandleris period The dollar crossed the area without intervening. Under the belt under the belt at a wholesale level, it opens a room for a central bank to go to a purchase 50 million USD newspapers. For analysts, there is a high probability that the dollar will at least stay close to the ground until March. From there it will depend four factors: the persistence of hyper restrictive monetary policy, the international context, the possibility of entering fresh dollars through harvest and treasury operations, and increasing dollarization in the rhythm of the electoral calendar.
"I'm not crazy buying dollars at this timeHe said Guido Sandleris at the end of September, when he just assumed the position of the chairman of the central bank and the dollar reached $ 41.89. Three months later, it seems that the bet was paid out: in the coming months, the currency fluctuated 38 $ at the retail level.
The dollar has several factors that lower the dollar. One is the "effect of Brazil". Guido Lorenzo, from the consultant LCGnotes that "the increase in the value of beet." coincides with the victory of Jair Bolsonaro. When the new president began to announce his reforms with market measures, titles were acquired in Brazil and Argentina They entered the financial dollars. A new wave of optimism emerged in the region. "
Lorenzo stresses that "the market is moving because of very short-term expectations." There are no incentives to buy large providers, while retail demand is conditional upon, because real income has decreased"
"The dollar moves on the ground, because monetary policy is very difficulthe says Lorenzo Sigaut Gravina, from Ecolatin. "The rate is very high and it exceeded the central bank stricter goals as in an agreement with the IMF. He also promised to mediate softly. Before the commitment, it was possible to intervene with $ 150 million when the dollar was above or below the belt, and now this limit has passed to 50 million US dollars a day. "
For Gabriel Caamaño, from the consultant Ledesmasince the introduction of this exchange policy started three months agothe more the rule than the exception is that the dollar is close to the ground. I hope that it will stay close to the ground, it depends a lot on the international context that accompanies and the harvest is good, as expected. "
Farm dollars come
In the coming months, election campaigns and entry into the country are expected. Currencies should come mainly from the countryside, with a harvest that promises to touch $ 30,000 million. Some warn that the government should not be wiped out yet. "You have to see if the crop dollars are being liquidated"The problem with harvesting is that it will come just like electoral turbulence. Liquidation will occur when grain companies will have it because they have no obligation to liquidate in a given period. This can be subject to control. "
"A fraction of the dollars will be liquidated because it will be necessary cover working capital"If exporters see that the situation is not favorable, they will prefer to keep the dollar." A reluctance to take away the dynamics of the foreign exchange market"Lorenzo notes that there will be another way to enter the dollar."There will be a provider who is a state treasuryto make tenders at some point. If this coincides with the peak of demand, the pressure can be so strong. "
In this context, the Secretary for Finance, Santiago BausiliHe said in the statements Infobae what "The treasury will sell approximately $ 10,000 million from April"The official stated that" it still needs to be seen how it will be implemented. It could be a sale to the Central, if it's simple, then sterilized, or if not directly through auctions, like last year. We want to influence the stock market as little as possible. Stability on the stock exchange is important for the government in order to avoid the new surprises of the dollar.
Sigaut Gravina is convinced that the situation would be more stable if the exchange rate was to take place in the middle of the waist. The problem is that it is between the floor and the ceiling fluctuation of 30%. Central decided prices are decreasing slower the dollar is on the ground because it gives priority to stability and lowers inflation. The risk is that today's success in managing the dollar transfer of tomorrow"
Lorenzo says that "you can set up a foreign exchange market in March a little different. It needs to be checked that there is any infection from politics to the economy, no one can guarantee that a jump in the dollar will take place in March, but With elections, dollarization is increased and this can cause pressure. Although it is also possible that high levels reach this pressure. I see that these levels are difficult to reduce. They will remain over 50% throughout the year. "
For Caamaño, "political risk will start to affect after a big night"