The dollar turned around all week: it fell by 4% and expected that something else would fall


Although there was no strong re-launch of cereal supplies, it repeated a movement that was only comparable to that it had in the week after the start of the plan. Source: LA NACION

The dollar closed one
week down operations in the local market, irrespective of the movements that the currency had in other places that repeat behaviors that have not been registered since the first week of October.

This means that since the week in which the current plan for the stabilization of money came into force after the "extraordinary" review of the agreement, which was originally signed in June, it did not show similar behavior.


, when the wholesaler fell from $ 40.90 to $ 38.01 on five wheels.

The ticket closed yesterday for USD 42.18 and USD 43.29 for wholesale and retail, which was a decline of close to 4% of the average with a value of $ 43.97 and 44.96 for which last Friday

The downward movement, which includes a 1.3 percent appreciation of the pesos per day (second consecutively, in which the global table of appreciation or depreciation is in relation to the dollar), confirms the change in the trend that is happening in the market.

This plant is essentially linked to the arrival of the harvesting dollars to which the immediate start of treasury auctions, approved by the IMF, has been changed to make up to USD 9,600 million (60 million US dollars a day) between provisions and those stored in pesos, , to cover the running costs and pay debts in pesos.

This operation is causing controversy, since according to recent official data, it is inclined to worsen the mismatch of currencies at a time when 66% of official gross debt was already exposed to foreign currencies. In practical terms, it helps operators to think that the imbalance between supply and demand for the currencies shown by the market in March, due to the demand for recovery due to rising uncertainty, has remained behind.

Traders agree that the dollar closed the week clearly offered.

"The day started with a
gap negative 10 cents to $ 42.65 and began to decline steadily until they hit the ground at $ 42.08 in the middle of the morning, "said Fernando Izzo, ABC Mercado de Cambios, a broker.

"The sales trend that emerged on Monday has aggravated during the week and has managed to close the dollar at the lowest level since the last week of March, or the fall in the real one in Brazil, which became more visible. Half a day could turn the price direction in the local market, "explained Gustavo Quintana, PR Changes.

Operators surprise that the ticket was also installed when there was no sense of the impact of a rough harvest. "There is still little liquidation of the new product, so the takeover of the offer is the result of starting lower positions and protecting investors and businesses," says Izzo.

The question is, what will happen in the morning when they will actually enter these dollars by counting the conditions that are dealt with in the cereals market.

"According to the current scenario, harvesting-related liquidation should increase to $ 130-150 million per day, and according to business hours, it should start at full pace since Monday, when the Treasury starts its auction", described Sebastián Albanesi, BLD Operations Director, who did not hesitate to announce on Twitter that he is expecting the beading route for the dollar after all.

Figures to consider

The numbers they are paying attention to on the market

  • -3.7% – weekly discount on retail: The selling price of the dollar to the public fell from Friday to Friday from $ 44.96 to $ 43.29. The decrease in the wholesaler reached 4%.
  • 130/150 – Millions of dollars: It is estimated that in the coming days grain companies will contribute to the market, doubling the amounts settled during these weeks.
  • $ 60 million: He promised that the Treasury Department would inflate the day since Monday, although it has not yet been confirmed


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