Risk of proximity to point without return



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Let's change with your most sensitive moment; Cristina, who is surrounded by the judiciary, and Peronism, without clear leadership, complete the most uncertain scenario since 2003 Source: Archive

Probably since 2003, Argentina has not met

electoral procedure

uncertain than the one that opens this year. All variables that can define voting have unforeseen dynamics: the economy has naturalized a dangerous degree of instability, the justice does not cease to influence, and politics can not provide a network of candidates with a certain level of certainty. Can somebody say this today?

Cristina Kirchner

the candidate will be either

Roberto Lavagna

Will eventually represent Peronism? Also

Mauricio Macri

, the only true candidate, is subjected to a glowing fire battery that prevents predicting how the voting months will come.

"It is impossible to rule and fight when there is bad news every day." An outcast, national official, thus synthesized a spirit that is quietly spreading to Casa Rosada. Last week, inflation was known to be 3.8%. Then, unemployment increased to 9.1% and activity drop by 2.6%. In the next few days, the poverty index will touch. Not to mention that the dollar seems to ignore the rise in interest rates and new concessions

IMF

.

In this context, it is not surprising that Macri's acceptance indicators have been structurally reduced, no longer in a conjunctural manner. According to a recent Poliarquía survey, the president's approval fell from 34% to 30%, which was the smallest record for its management. "We lost the soft vote that followed us in 2017. Today we take care of our third," says the official source. The perception of the general state of the country and economic expectations also decreased. The positive image of Macri fell from 28% to 25%, María Eugenia Vidal (from 47% to 42%) and Horacio Rodríguez Larreta (from 34% to 30%). The government's confidence index, measured by the Di Tella University, fell by almost 11 points in February after a temporary recovery in February. These are just numbers that indicate a bad moment

Let's change

.

The real problem is that the ruling party is dangerously approaching the stage without returning, to the point of inflection, from which the trend becomes irreparable and inefficient, possible jump of indicators. "If Macri has an asya in his sleeve to pull it out," this week, the popular wisdom of Margarita Barrientos, asked in the same line to "do something" to worker Dante.

The argument of pro-government strategists is that they were running back in 2015 and 2017. There is also the theory of electoral relativity, according to which the course of time depends on the political context. Today, there is an atmosphere of rising social unrest that points to governance. Let's change what was not before. "You would never vote for Macri" is the first time higher than "you would never vote for Cristina Kirchner", although it is also less rigid. The president still has the chance to win, and this is a credit for non-peronists who are thinking about the economic situation. But you should not trust yourself much longer.

Cristina Kirchner is in a double situation. On the one hand, the same work Poliarquíe revealed that his image increased from 30 to 33%. What's more: in the government they recognize that today we would get Macri two or three points in STEP. Harvesting on burnt land, which was left macrismo in certain social sectors. However, the moment of deep emotional instability passes through the position of her daughter (those who know her health is sad) and because of the lack of judges when she added ten cases against her. The revelations of ex-reactor Kirchner Víctor Manzanares, who was recognized this week as a colleague of justice, have been exhibited as never before. It was a story between Jules Verne and Marie Pous, with hidden treasures, unlawful business and tightening. A fantastic story, if it does not show how much Argentina has broken up in recent years.

The Patria Institute is the center of confusion. Even the Kirchnerists do not know how to decode the movement of their boss. Asked about whether operational Cuba has political significance, they talk about improvised responses. There is still no clear national strategy, although there is no convincing reason why Cristina is not leading. Yes, it is difficult to armed to unite forces with Peronism in all possible provinces (for example yesterday in Tierra del Fuego), although the failure of Neuquén left many internal sequels. There are also many pulses for the D & # 39; Alessio effect.

Crack protagonists suffer from very high wear, which does not mean that the alternative is automatically consolidated. However, when accumulating the uncertainty of this campaign, the question is also whether the polarization scheme will be repeated in the years 2015 and 2017. The same trick does not always work. The circle closest to the president continues to rely on the infallibility of the instruments of Marcos Peña and Jaime Duran Barba. Despite being close, there are those who doubt. In particular, Vidal's environment, where without evfemism, analyzes a possible scenario of defeats if Cristina is a candidate. The governor is worried about the numbers, but he is also confused by the revelation that she was observed.

The twenty-minute conclave he had on Thursday with Macrie and Rodríguez Larreta in the presidential voyage after the act has already become part of the mythology. Nobody knows what they were talking about. Something denies that there is more tension in the trio. The spirit of the President's resignation to re-election has no basis for how Macri conceived his political construction, but no one can prevent him from fleeing again.

An agile step despite socks, Roberto Lavagna reinforced this week as his "unanimous" candidate, as he preached. Within 24 hours he met Juan Schiaretti, federal federal peronism, and Ricardo Alfonsin, leader of the radical rebellion. A few weeks ago he also saw Martin Lousteau. Think of its layout as the sum of the sectors of both sides, along with the socialism of Miguel Lifschitz and GEN, Margarite Stolbizer. It has the support of the trade union sector and business sympathies. It has become a socially accepted candidate for those who refuse to break. His preaching is to create a coalition government inspired by the 2002 dialogue table, which is convinced that Argentina is in a similar situation. Its purpose is to oppose its productive message with current fiscalism. "Magic Solution" in Macri.

According to consultant Opinaia, he is the leader of the opposition with the best image and least rejection. However, it has another peculiarity: it can deduct more votes than kambiems as kirnerism, because its potential voters are urban middle class, and especially adults. It is part of the DNA that radicalism brought to the ruling coalition. That's why the nest has been upset in the UCR, which now even doubts that the convention is concluded and is more likely to declare the freedom of action in districts. This also means that the government came out this week to criticize Lavagna in a strategy that seemed to be a more reaction than a calculation.

However, surveys do not speak about the intrusion of a political phenomenon. Despite its strong accommodation since the summer, Lavagna has only a few points more than Sergio Massa and something more than Juan Manuel Urtubey. That's why Schiaretti ratified him this week so he could not be a space candidate without going through the STEP. It also has no penetration in popular sectors.

The debate about whether it should be internal or not in alternative Peronism actually hides an in-depth discussion: Lavagna does not want to be trapped in the federal candidacy of the PJ, but at the same time it depends heavily on the national anchor of the governors and mayors to grow. "PASO is part of the construction, we will not give Peronism without prisoners," they remarked near Urtubey.

But the most sensitive issue for Lavagno is Massa. They became part of the same team in the rival ("We did not see it coming", admits near Tigrense). They have sympathy and respect, but the former minister understands that he should lead the former head of the cabinet, while the former head of the cabinet is convinced that he has defeated the former minister inside (in the Poliarchy survey, Massa went on and Lavagna went up and Lavagna collapsed the previous month). Today, everyone wants to add votes to set the conditions for the negotiating table by the end of May.

A ring rotates in the air, allowing access to the power of the state, which has placed uncertainty in its natural state. Similar too many traps.

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