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Federico Furiase, director of the Eco Go consulting firm, said that "you see that the rate of growth in fixed terms is accelerating after a break in order to increase the transactional demand for money in December". The economist explained that this increase occurs with a dollar that is close to that area without intervention, and with interest rates in the area of 3.7% per month above the expected inflation for January (2.5). %) "" This combination between the course and the positive real interest rates is an important point for analyzing the result, "he added. He nevertheless argued that" this is a very thin balance; It will be crucial to maintain this growth by encouraging the renewal of Leliq. "
The problem is that this phenomenon will arise in a context in which the central bank is likely to continue to gradually lower interest rates, while trying to maintain the stability of the exchange rate. "The risk of this stability would jeopardize the development of certain deadlines and undermine the renewal of Leliq," Furiase said. In addition, he stressed that "the bulk of the increase is on the side of fixed wholesale conditions, which has been going on since October, when a new cash plan has started." He said that "you have to keep in mind that if in January the dollar will rise by $ 1.5, you will get profits from fixed terms; it is crucial that we see BCRA's ability to continue to lower the level without undermining this process."
Since 1 October, BCRA has begun implementing a new monetary policy scheme based on the control of aggregate variables, whereby the interest rate has become an endogenous variable determined by the supply and demand of money. . The aim of this new system is to reduce the high inflation that accelerated in the course of 2018 due to the currency crisis. T For this, the organization, led by Guido Sandler, decided to generate a zero growth of the monetary base by June this year, which has exceeded the target so far . In order to achieve this goal, Leliq uses attractive prices as the main sterilization instrument.
Currently, the course works very close to the surface area (yesterday at $ 37.33) and analysts are waiting for BCRA to come up to the market with daily sales of up to $ 50 million, something that for the moment did not have to be needed, but this is possible in a short time. In the midst of this process, we will have to see a balance between interest rates and the exchange rate, which allows for the coupled deposits to be maintained in this growth process.
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