Dollar and interest rates fell to the level 3 weeks ago, despite the real fall in the fixed-income balance


This was reflected in the day-to-day movement in which the chronicles reappeared: the dollar rose again, the Central Bank paid more for Leliq, JP Morgan's Public Risk Index remained on the rise; although it was clearly known in advance that Argentina would return to the funds deriving from the new approval of the IMF's objectives; the crop estimates provided for the initiation of the liquidation of exporters; and from the Treasury, they have ensured that Monday's 15-day offer of USD 60 million will begin to cope with the payment of the debt of public debt in pesos.

However, one of the major forecasts of the markets was again fulfilled: "Buying with rumors and sold with news"

These developments determined that the average parity of the retailer's exchange rate fell from $ 41.02 to March 18 at the nominal record threshold of $ 44.92 per month; and the average rate of decline in Leliq's offers will consolidate the jump to 68.35% per annum in 7 days, from at least 43.94% annually in mid-February, to start a clear path downward, which will return them to Three weeks ago: the retail price of the dollar fell to $ 43.29 for sale; and $ 42.18 for foreign trade; and the central bank's reference rate slightly decreased to 66.86% per annum.

Portfolio Dollars

Within the fixed-term fixed-term loans in the private sector, these movements are between the dollar and the Leliq, while the inflation rate remained high, and since March, they have determined a further deterioration in real monthly income, which has been translated into net cancellation and foreign currency purchases, foreign investors, as well as residents.

They returned the first with their funds to low-risk countries, obviously because the fear exceeded the shame, and the locals decided to deposit it in a bank account, which is reflected in the permanent increase in these deposits in the range of close to 30,000 USD. millions

The initial response was due to further tightening of monetary policy and consequent increase in interest rates in pesos, including the payment of fixed-term deposits, but since the beginning of the second week of April, the table has changed, although Not much. This was used by Finance Minister Nicolás Dujova and Guido Sandleris, President of the Central Bank, at a meeting with investors in Washington during the spring meeting of the IMF.

Therefore, analysts from Quantum Finance, a consultant who directs former Finance Secretary Daniele Marx, in his weekly report, considered: "Turbulence in recent weeks shows that at this stage, it is stabilized only through the use of political instruments if the interest rate and the control of the amount of money will not be available in a more complex immediate future. "

Furthermore By August, a scenario of a certain fluctuation of currencies is expected for exporters of maize and olive complexes, together with the effects of sales made by the treasury on the foreign exchange market.


Source link